Projekt

Extreme value models for solar and wind power forecasting

Udbyder

Vejleder

Sted

København og omegn

When planning the operation of power systems with high shares of generation from
solar PV (e.g. solar panels on rooftops), up to a few days ahead, it is vital to know
the minimum level of power, which can be guaranteed with a very high certainty
from the PVs. Of course nothing can be guaranteed with 100% certainty, however it
is possible to apply statistical extreme value models to the predict a minimum level,
which can be guaranteed with a very high cetainty e.g. with a 99.999% certainty (e.g.
for hourly resolution the realized power will only be below this level in average one
hour out of 10000 hours).
In this project a case, either wind or solar, will be chosen, possibly together with a
company, and the necessary data collected. Then the aim is to build a suitable sta-
tistical model for the particular case. It can both be the output from a single wind
farm or single PV system, which is modeled, or it can be a larger area. The project
can include an analysis of the effect of spatial averaging on the uncertainty, i.e. if the
average output from a larger area is predicted, this should lead to lower uncertainty.

Forudsætninger

Advanced courses in statistics and experience with R (or similar scripting language).

Søg i opslag
Kontakt

Virksomhed/organisation

DTU Compute

Navn

Peder Bacher

Stilling

Lektor

Mail

pbac@dtu.dk

Vejleder-info

Bachelor i Matematik og Teknologi

Vejleder

Peder Bacher

Medvejledere

Henrik Madsen, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Jan Kloppenborg Møller

ECTS-point

15 - 30

Type

Bachelorprojekt, Kandidatspeciale

Kandidatuddannelsen i Matematisk Modellering og Computing

Vejleder

Peder Bacher

Medvejledere

Henrik Madsen, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Jan Kloppenborg Møller

ECTS-point

15 - 30

Type

Bachelorprojekt, Kandidatspeciale

OM DTU

DTU er et teknisk eliteuniversitet med international rækkevidde og standard. Vores mission er at udvikle og nyttiggøre naturvidenskab og teknisk videnskab til gavn for samfundet. 10.000 studerende uddanner sig her til fremtiden, og 5.700 medarbejdere har hver dag fokus på uddannelse, forskning, myndighedsrådgivning og innovation, som bidrager til øget vækst og velfærd.

Find os her

Anker Engelunds Vej 1
Bygning 101A
2800 Kgs. Lyngby


45 25 25 25

dtu@dtu.dk

CVR-nr. 30 06 09 46

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